Social tension in Bulgaria is falling, but remains in the high-risk zone

Despite a distinct decline in social anxiety levels, the social environment in Bulgaria is still classified as a zone of difficult-to-control risks. According to the latest report from the Center for Analysis and Crisis Communications and the sociological agency 'Myara', the social tension index for the second quarter of 2026 reached 6.22.

This indicator is lower than the values at the beginning of the year (6.76) and immediately before the elections (6.88). Analysts point out that such a lull is a natural effect during periods of large-scale political change and change in government, as citizens often exhibit greater trust in institutions immediately following electoral processes.

Key Factors for Tension

Despite the positive trend, experts emphasize that expectations for the new government are extremely high. The main challenges that continue to maintain social anxiety are:

• Economic instability: High inflation levels and concerns regarding the prices of basic goods.
• Corruption: The lack of trust in the fight against corruption remains a key factor.
• Road safety: A serious increase in road incidents and fatalities is being observed, which triggers strong public intolerance.
• Social media: While the media space shows less negativity, tension remains high on social networks, creating a "lag" effect in the calming of public sentiment.

"The decrease shows some calming of the social environment, but the index remains high. Subsequent periods will show whether the decline will turn into a sustainable trend," comment Alexander Hristov and Purvan Simeonov.

Currently, a decrease in the number of registered protests and their participants is also being reported, which further supports the thesis of a temporary lull in social dynamics.

About the Social Tension Index

The tool measures the degree of calm or anxiety in society on a scale from 0 to 10. A value between 6 and 7.99 is defined as a "high index with difficult-to-control risks." This data helps in forecasting potential crises that could affect political and economic processes in the country.