Algorithms Predict Success: Levski and CSKA 1948 Become Favorites in European Qualifiers

Modern statistical analysis and computer simulations are becoming an increasingly decisive factor in determining the chances of success in international football. Recent results in the European qualifiers have drastically changed the mathematical predictions for the Bulgarian representatives Levski and CSKA 1948.

After Levski's first successful match against Romania's Universitatea Craiova, algorithms recalculated the chances of the Bulgarian club advancing. Before the match, the odds were nearly equal (48% for the 'Blues' versus 52% for the Romanians), but after the 1-0 victory, the supercomputer now gives a 64% probability of success for Levski and only 36% for Universitatea.

If Levski manages to pass the next step, their probable opponent is the Cypriot side Omonia. Although the Cypriots are favorites in a potential duel (73% versus 27%), in the event of a meeting between them and the 'Blues', the prediction is extremely close – 54% for Omonia versus 46% for Levski.

A similar dynamic is observed in the participation of CSKA 1948. Following the 0-0 draw against Slovakia's Spartak Trnava, mathematical models rearranged the roles in the duel, giving the Bulgarian team better prospects for continuing in the tournament.